Essential support for every business decision
The activity of Key to Energy is characterised by an ongoing commitment to the development and maintenance of advanced forecasting models covering a wide range of forecasts, including demand forecasts, renewable energy sources (RES) and energy single price (Prezzo Unico Nazionale – PUN).
We are particularly specialised in short-term forecasting of wind plant generation, working with players such as Axpo, GSE, and Inergia. Our forecasts are not only limited to the generation of individual plants, but also extend to the short- and medium-term forecasting of wind plant aggregates, ensuring accurate cost monitoring and assisting in the scheduling of maintenance activities.
We also provide short-term forecasting services for photovoltaic plants in cooperation with companies such as Axpo, Iren, Marseglia, Vivigas, Arvedi. Our expertise extends to the forecasting of zonal and national aggregates both for wind and PV plants, contributing to an efficient resource management.
Our activity also includes the forecasting of the single national price (PUN) and the Residual Zonal Withdrawal (PRA) for different zones and distributors, in cooperation with companies such as Colsam, Optima, Piemonte Energy, Eneide, Vivigas, Energy Wave, Egea.
A forecast monitoring system is implemented to ensure a continuous monitoring and timely correction, enabling constant evaluation of model performance.
Our analyses extend beyond national borders, forecasting Italian and foreign drivers such as temperatures, river temperatures and German wind generation. We also perform long-term simulations of the Captured Price of renewables, monitoring the performance of renewable plants through platforms such as PLT.
Evaluating archived weather data, we analyse the historical generation of renewable plants, as well as evaluate Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) of clients through a match between price and generation.
Our expertise also extends to the short-term and long-term optimisation of storage systems and the assessment of long-term feasibility of renewable and storage facilities. Moreover, we optimise operations of the Day-Ahead Market (Mercato del Giorno Prima – MGP), the Italian Market (Mercato Italiano – MI), and in the Cross-Border Intraday Market (XBID), developing effective imbalance strategies starting from September. Finally, we analyse physical spot drivers, providing a comprehensive perspective on market dynamics.